What the end of QE means for the future of the MBS market

How the Fed’s big balance sheet unwind may affect markets By. After global central banks embarked on quantitative easing, investors were forced out of bonds into equities and high-yielding.

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Agency MBS now dominates the total MBS market. While the total outstanding balance of the mortgage-related securities market has been shrinking for the past several years, the decline has been driven by a sharp drop in the issuance of non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities and private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities.

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April 19th: topics covered include. primary topic was gradual establishment of Infinite QE Forever by the USFed, so as to cover a large portion of major US Corporate Bonds as they become fallen angels and debt zombies, while the USGovt debt monetization becomes standard policy.

What the end of QE means for markets Stephen Williamson: New Monetarist Economics –  · The FOMC minutes for the January 29-30 meeting, released yesterday, contain some important information about the Fed’s balance sheet, and plans for the FOMC’s future operating strategy.Let’s unpack this, to try to understand what they’re up to. The key information is in the section in the minutes on "Long Run Monetary Policy Implementation Frameworks."

 · But here is the rub. The “neutral rate” cannot be observed. We have to back out the number by observing the behaviour of the major components of the economy; we need to look at output and employment as it is and then judge whether what we observe are, in fact, the conditions that give rise to the neutral rate.

Subprime mortgage crisis – Wikipedia – In 2008, another source found estimates by some analysts that Fannie’s share of the subprime mortgage-backed securities market dropped from a peak of 44% in 2003 to 22% in 2005, before rising to 33% in 2007. Whether GSEs played a small role in the crisis because they were legally barred from engaging in subprime lending is disputed.

Outlook for MBS. MBS are a large part of the U.S. bond market, representing about 30% of the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index (source: Bloomberg, as of 11/30/2017). Chances are if you hold a core bond mutual fund or exchange traded fund (ETF), you have MBS in your portfolios. So should you just sell your MBS since the Fed will be.